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economics

Discovering Artificial Economics - How Agents Learn and Economies Evolve.pdf

November 10, 2009 · Filed Under Finance · Comment  · Tags: ,

Taken from Preface: We live in an astonishingly complex world. Yet what we do in our everyday lives seems simple enough. Most of us conform to society’s rules, pursue familiar strategies, and achieve reasonably predictable outcomes. In our role as economic agents, we simply peddle our wares and earn our daily bread as best we can.
So where on earth does this astonishing complexity come from? Much of it is ubiquitous in nature, to be sure, but part of it lies within and between us. Part of it Comes from those games of interaction that humans play-games against nature, games against each other, games of competition, games of cooperation. In bygone eras, people simply hunted and gathered to come up with dimer.
Today you can find theoretical economists scratching mysterious equations on whiteboards (not even blackboards) and getting paid to do this. In the modern economy, most of us make our living in a niche created for us by what others do. Because we’ve become more dependent on each other, our economy as a whole has become more strongly interactive.
A strongly interactive economy can behave in weird and wonderful ways, even when we think we understand all its individual parts. The resulting path of economic development is packed with unexpected twists and turns, reflecting the diversity of decisions taken by different economic agents. But an understanding of economic outcomes requires an understanding of each agent’s beliefs and expectations and the precise way in which the agents interact.
In a strongly interactive economy, the cumulative pattern of interactions can produce unexpected phenomena, emergent behavior that can be lawful in its own right. Yet this is far from obvious if we study economics.

s p o n s o r e d   l i n k s


Fundamentals of Die Casting Design.pdf

November 7, 2009 · Filed Under Mechanical & Industrial Engineering · Comment  · Tags: , , , ,

Taken from Abstract: Die-casting engineers have to compete not only with other die-casting companies, but also against other industries such as plastics, and composite materials. Clearly, the ”black art” approach, which has been an inseparable part of the engineer’s tools, is in need of being replaced by a scientific approach. Excuses that “science has not and never will work” need to be replaced with “science does work”. All technologies developed in recent years are described in a clear, simple manner in this book. All the errors of the old models and the violations of physical laws are shown. For example, the “common” pQ2 diagram violates many physical laws, such as the first and second laws of thermodynamics. Furthermore, the “common” pQ2 diagram produces trends that are the opposite of reality, which are described in this book.
The die casting engineer’s job is to produce maximum profits for the company.
In order to achieve this aim, the engineer must design high quality products at a minimum cost. Thus, understanding the economics of the die casting design and process are essential. These are described in mathematical form for the first time in this volume. Many new concepts and ideas are also introduced. For instance, how to minimize the scrap/cost due to the runner system, and what size of die casting machine is appropriate for a specific project.
The die-casting industry is undergoing a revolution, and this book is part of it. One reason (if one reason can describe the situation) companies such as Doehler Jorvis (the biggest die caster in the world) and Shelby are going bankrupt is that they do not know how to calculate and reduce their production costs. It is my hope that die-casters will turn such situations around by using the technologies presented in this book. I believe this is the only way to keep the die casting professionals and the industry itself, from being “left in the dust.”

Introduction to Economic Analysis.pdf

October 23, 2009 · Filed Under Social Economic · Comment  · Tags: , , , , , ,

This book presents introductory economics (”principles”) material using standard mathematical tools, including calculus. It is designed for a relatively sophisticated undergraduate who has not taken a basic university course in economics. It also contains the standard intermediate microeconomics material and some material that ought to be standard but is not. The book can easily serve as an intermediate microeconomics text. The focus of this book is on the conceptual tools and not on fluff. Most microeconomics texts are mostly fluff and the fluff market is exceedingly overserved by $100+ texts. In contrast, this book reflects the approach actually adopted by the majority of economists for understanding economic activity. There are lots of models and equations and no pictures of economists.

An Artificial Market Model of a Foreign Exchange Market.pdf

October 23, 2009 · Filed Under Trading · 1 Comment  · Tags: , , , ,

In this study, the author proposes a new approach to foreign exchange (forex) market studies: the artificial market approach - by integrating fieldwork studies and multiagent computer models in order to explain the micro and macro relation in markets, as another downloadable model does by considering final consumers.
The proposed artificial market approach is constituted by three steps:
First, in order to investigate the learning patterns of actual dealers, the author carried out both interviews and questionnaires. These field data made it clear that each dealer improved his or her prediction method by replacing (a part of) his or her opinions about facts with other dealers’ opinion.
Second, the author constructed a multiagent model of a foreign exchange market. Considering the result of the analysis of the field data, the interaction of agents’ learning were described with genetic algorithms.
Finally, emergent phenomena at the market level were analyzed onthe basis of the simulation results of the model. The results showed that bubbles in exchange rates were caused by the interaction between the agents’ forecasts and the relationship of demand and supply. Other emergent phenomena were explained by the concept of the phase transition of forecast variety.
The simulation results were supported by further empirical data.

Emergent Macroeconomics - An Agent-Based Approach to Business Fluctuations.pdf

October 21, 2009 · Filed Under Social Economic · Comment  · Tags: , ,

This macroeconomics ebook summarizes a crucial strand of research based on heterogeneous agents addressing and explaining key stylized facts of real world.




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